From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Amid the immense confusion surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the recent overnight operation saw its first major military attack on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.