Starmer's Allies Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.